COVID-19 pandemic has caused many difficulties and damages to economies around the world, but it is an opportunity for economies and businesses if they know how to take advantage of the corrections and restructuring of the economic situation, global trade caused by the pandemic. Therefore, timely-in advanced preparation of scripts and solutions anticipation that helps businesses to recover strongly after pandemic is indispensable.
Marco-related news of week 19
Governments and economies are adjusting macro policies in the near future. Following up and updating these macro-economic changes helps CEOs to grasp market trends, seek business investment opportunities, avoid risks … not only overcome difficulties, and revive businesses, but also can break through and transform themselves.
VIVA will regularly monitor and update to you about relevant- macro information every week, enclosed with professional comments and perspectives.
At the same time, VIVA maintains advisory groups who are well-trained and experienced in the related fields to support businesses to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, addressing urgent issues such as: Labor, salary, credit, debt structure, closure of unprofitable businesses, setting up new businesses, applying support policies from the government … If you need any help, please feel free to contact us directly for advice support.
Messages and signals from Vietnam
Prime Minister: Urgently “spend money”, disburse VND 700,000 billion in the year:
- “Disbursement of public investment capital of about VND 700,000 billion this year is extremely important. We must rush into the battle, if any problem arises, report it promptly, cling to day and night to deploy it; No branch or locality cannot disburse all the capital ”
- Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, the Prime Minister said that it was basically pushed back, suggesting that the Government members focus on discussing the socio-economic situation in April and the first 4 months, especially giving comments on the Resolution of the Government to solve difficulties, disburse public investment capital, recover production and business activities.
- Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said that in the past 4 months, many large economies experienced negative growth. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the scenario for global GDP base in 2020 will be negative 3% if the COVID-19 pandemic peaks in the second quarter of 2020 and decreases in the second half of 2020. Cited forecasting of IMF for Vietnam’s GDP growth this year (the highest growth in Southeast Asia, reaching about 2.7%), the Prime Minister required to reach this level.
- With the aforementioned situation, the Prime Minister emphasized the spirit that must soon recover the development of socio-economic activities, this is an urgent requirement of the economy, community and people nationwide; priority should be given to restarting the economy, promoting development and emphasizing the need to achieve the dual objective of pandemic prevention and socio-economic development, “how the growth achieve the necessary goals”.
- Regarding growth, the Prime Minister also emphasized that inflation must be controlled below 4%, this is a very important goal because if growth is high, inflation will not make sense.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: The policy of expanding public investment and loosening monetary policy will stimulate corporate credits, leading to the formation of supporting businesses, increasing employment and income… All businesses have the opportunity to benefit directly and indirectly from this policy, especially businesses directly involved in the supply chain for public investment packages.
The scenario for economic recovery after a pandemic
- Minister of Ministry of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung presents a draft Government Resolution on urgent tasks and solutions to solve difficulties for production and business; promote disbursement of public investment; ensure social security and safety in response to a pandemic, and outline the scenario for economic recovery after a pandemic.
- According to Minister Nguyen Chi Dung, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resonates with the decline from 2019 that has had a comprehensive impact on all economic and social fields of countries around the world. For Vietnam, the impact of the pandemic is very serious. The growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was estimated to increase only 3.82% over the same period, the lowest from 2011 to present.
- The longer the pandemic, the more severe the impact on the economy is, the target of 6.8% GDP growth is difficult and difficult to achieve. In case the pandemic is controlled in the second quarter, GDP growth is forecasted at about 5.32% and in case the pandemic lasts until the third quarter, GDP growth is forecast at 5.05%.
- Some macroeconomic indicators that are likely to be affected strongly include: The average consumer price index (CPI) for the whole year may increase by over 4% if there are no drastic price management measures; State budget revenue may decrease by VND 145,000 billion; import-export, investment of private sector and FDI decreased sharply due to the sharp decrease in “global demand” of investors, investors tended to be cautious in making investment decisions and diverting investment more safely.
- Accordingly, the Government’s main scenario will be:
- Firstly, successful pandemic control that new infected cases rising slowly, increasing the number of treated cases, minimizing deaths not only plays an important role in protecting people’s health but also It also has great significance in strengthening people’s confidence in the Party and State; improve Vietnam’s reputation and confidence in the international arena.
- Next, it is necessary to drastically and fully implement solutions promulgated in the Government’s Resolutions and the Prime Minister’s Directive in order to maintain reasonable socio-economic activities, stabilizing the macro economy, controlling inflation in the context of the impact of the pandemic will increase the ability to “recover” quickly and “break through” the economy after the pandemic has passed.
- At the same time, increasing the interest of the international business community and investors for Vietnam as a safe and sustainable investment and business destination.
- It is necessary to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on industries, sectors and the national economy; study and forecast trends, opportunities and identify new drivers of growth as a basis for accelerating restructuring of the economy to accommodate new shifts and structures, such as development needs and digital transformation, labor demand, investment trends, consumption trends …
- Early formulating scenarios of “thriving” the economy, concretizing to each industry, field, locality, and each business sector before the pandemic ends so that the economy is ready to turn into new operational status; competitive, proactively participating in the value chains formed after the pandemic. Catch up and take advantage of every opportunity for the country to develop rapidly and sustainably not only by but also more than it can be before the outbreak.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: The government that has succeeded on defeating pandemic is now drastically must fight on the economic, which means there will be more policies to support domestic businesses and expand international cooperation.
Positive-signs that help Vietnam’s economy might recover after the pandemic:
- Economic growth in 2020 depends heavily on public investment disbursement.
- Stable financial index, safe Vietnam’s economy after COVID-19 pandemic.
- The World Bank has just released the Vietnam macroeconomic update in May 2020. Accordingly, the World Bank said that Vietnam’s economy may recover after easing social distancing measures nationwide from April 23.
- According to the World Bank, after maintaining well in the first quarter of 2020 with estimated GDP growth of 3.8%, Vietnam’s economy faced signs of decline due to the nation’s social distancing in April. The implementation of social distancing nationwide in April has brought about economic consequences, reflected in the main economic indicators.
- World Bank also emphasized that Vietnam’s economy might recover thanks to the positive signals. About foreign economy, the World Bank stated that Vietnam’s merchandise export continued to grow in the first months of 2020, but at a slower pace than the previous period COVID-19, reflecting weaker external demand, disruptions of some global supply chains and a temporary ban on rice export (lifted).
- Fitch Ratings has adjusted Vietnam’s outlook from “Positive” to “Stable” and maintains Vietnam’s national credit rating at BB. The revised outlook shows the escalating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy in the fields of exports and tourism, as well as weakening domestic demand.
- Fitch’s rating confirms Vietnam’s strong medium-term growth prospects based on stable macroeconomic background, low levels of government debt, and resilient external economic sector, including foreign exchange reserves are quite large.
- The Economist magazine has just released the financial health rankings of 66 emerging economies, of which Vietnam ranked 12th, a safe group after COVID-19 pandemic. The Economist’s rankings are based on four financial strength indicators, including public debt, external debt, borrowing costs, and foreign exchange reserves. The Economist estimates that the majority of safe-group economies are healthy enough to survive over pandemic.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: Vietnam is getting a high credit rating, which will attract a wave of foreign investors, especially investors from the EU, US … who are losing confidence from the Lack of transparency about China’s COVID.
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Messages and signals from the US
President Trump rigorously implements far-reaching policies
- Withdrawing global supply chains from China. According to Reuters, US officials revealed the administration of President Donald Trump determined to move the global supply chain out of China.
- The high economic losses and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States are pushing the government to shift production and supply chain dependence out of China as soon as possible.
- US Deputy Secretary of State Keith Krach, in charge of economic growth, affirmed that “We are still working to reduce our dependence on supply chains for China over the past few years and we are now pushing this initiative.” Krach emphasized that this is a key issue with US security and the government, that being said this is likely to be announced a new step soon.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: Trump’s determination to further promote the wave of manufacturing businesses withdrawing from China and Vietnam will be one of the priority destinations.
Forbes: American companies leaving China and Vietnam will be the first to take advantage from this
- American companies are relocating their factories from China as a result of the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Global Manufacturing Consultants A.T Kearney has released its 7th annual Reshoring Index (a measure of the process of moving a business or a portion of businesses based in another country back to the original country), in the 7th annual show dramatic reversal. US domestic products in 2019 account for a much bigger share than the 14 Asian investigated exporters. Products imported from China are taking the tremendous impact.
- Last year, companies took the initiative to reconsider their supply chains by persuading Chinese partners to relocate their factories to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs or to completely replace supply from China.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: Vietnamese businesses should take action to learn about this and have long-term plans to look for opportunities to join the supply- chain and businesses from the US.
USA, EU making effort to save the economy at risk of being “flattened”.
- The US Senate has just passed a new bill-economic stimulus package valued at $484 billion to support small businesses and hospitals, including aid to expand COVID-19 testing in the United States. The bill was passed by US senators in the form of voice voting and passed to the House of Representatives on April 23 (US time).
- This program aims to support US businesses to maintain employee salaries while the US economy closes against the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Washington administration hopes the business will maintain stability and quickly return to operation when the economy is reactivated.
- A Wall Street Journal well-informed source said President Donald Trump’s administration is also considering deploying federal support packages to assist oil industries; in return, the US government will hold certain shares in these businesses or their crude oil reserves. The plan was put forward by the US government in the context of global oil demand “collapsing” due to the COVID-19 pandemic, while the production and business situation of US energy companies was tragic.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: These relief packages often entail fluctuations in exchange rates, gold prices, stock market … businesses and investors need to capture information and have appropriate plans.
More than 68,000 people passed away from COVID-19, Mr. Trump sought to “turn the economic axis”.
- Consultants believe that the shift to economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic began under control will help US President Donald Trump “score” ahead of the election.
- Optimistically believing that the “worst stage” of the pandemic is over, after 34 days of staying the White House, President Trump went to Camp David on his weekend business trip. “We will spend a lot of time on meetings, phone calls, and with some foreign heads of state … I think we will have an important event on Sunday night,” Mr. Trump said before leaving the House. White arrived at Camp David.
- At Camp David, Mr. Trump is expected to discuss policies to promote the economy heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is part of a White House strategy to shift attention to the economic side – which the consultants believe will help Mr. Trump develop his strength and “score” ahead of the election.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: Once the US economy gets freeze, definitely this will make every other economy will be negatively or dangerously affected. Trump’s determination to open the economy is a positive sign for the global economy.
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Messages and signals from the EU
The EU countries agreed on a widespread economic plan response to COVID-19 pandemic
- In the evening of April 9, the Finance Ministers of 27 European Union (EU) countries committed to an agreement on the widespread economic plan response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, 540 billion euros will be mobilized to help countries overcome the current pandemic crisis.
- The COVID-19 pandemic emergency payments include 240 billion euros of loans from the Euro-area Regional Relief Fund, the European Investment Bank’s loan guarantee fund of 200 billion euros (EIB) for businesses and European Commission maximum guarantee of 100 billion euros to support partial unemployment
- Le Monde newspaper quoted EU Finance Ministers’ point of view on this event, stating that the agreement affirms the solidarity and determination of countries in the region to overcome the pandemic crisis soon. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire supposed that this event marked an important day for the EU. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the impasse in discussions on restoration plans was admitted as a threat to the cohesion of the eurozone and the risk of exiting the EU.
- Earlier, during the meeting on April 7th, EU countries failed to commit an agreement after intense discussions due to the opposing views between the countries in the north and the south.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: The consensus of the countries in the EU is a positive signal for the development of other relevant policies, especially the trade flow between the countries in the union, which affecting businesses exporting to the EU, and countries receiving investment from the EU …
The EU agreed on a COVID-19 pandemic relief package of 540 billion euros
- Europe is currently one of the regions most affected by the pandemic, with Italy and Spain having the highest number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. These are also the two countries that are carrying huge debts with debt to GDP ratio of 130% and 100% respectively.
- After weeks of intense discussion, EU ministers gave “the green light” to three pandemic relief programs worth up to 540 billion euros but still delayed the decision to issue general bonds ( Eurobond) for the region.
- Accordingly, European ministers agreed that each country in the region could request a credit equal to 2% of the country’s GDP – or about 240 billion euros, through the European Stability Mechanism fund to cover direct and non-direct costs associated with the pandemic
- European countries also approved the European Investment Bank’s initiative to provide financial support of 200 billion euros to businesses, mainly SMEs in the EU.
- In addition, the EU will enact a 100 billion euros initiative to help reducing unemployment in member states, according to CNBC. The relief package will raise the value of EU measures respond to the pandemic to 3,200 billion euros – the largest figure the world economic region has ever spent to reduce the impact of the pandemic.
- Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs, head of European economic research department on April 8 predicted that Eurozone GDP will drop by 9%. This reduction mainly occurred in the second quarter of 2020 with a GDP growth rate of -11%. “This number is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but overall the growth reduction will be twice as large as the damage caused by the European economy during the financial crisis,” he supposed.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: The relief package will stimulate economic recovery, GDP growth in the EU, creating a positive global spreading effect, especially in countries with strong cooperation such as Vietnam.
European and American companies are seeking to leave China more and more
- Many European and American companies are moving out from China to find a stable and cheaper supply chain.
- According to the latest survey from QIMA’s quality control and supply chain audit, the percentage of businesses leaving China is 80% for US companies and 67% for those based in European Union.
- QIMA reports that its demand for corporate audits in China decreased by 13% due to mainland manufacturers losing foreign partners, as tax-related expenses and foreign companies are shifting. production out of China to avoid those taxes. European companies are not much affected by the trade war, because their governments do not impose tariffs on Chinese imports. However, they must have their own reasons to reduce their dependence on Chinese production. Following the current situation, they are gradually shifting production to Southeast Asian countries or the areas surrounding their headquarters.
- The trade war has made it difficult for multinational companies in China and the US. For years, both sides have sourced goods from countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh to replace them to minimize costs. For example, garments, recently sold in the market are mostly Made in Vietnam instead of China. In the latest QIMA survey, more than 75% of respondents in the United States said they were affected by tariffs, most of which were related to rising costs.
=>> Perspective from VIVA: Vietnam has a high economic and political credit rating, and this is an advantaged opportunity to attract investors from the EU and the US to “pour” capital into Vietnam. This is an important factor that makes Vietnam’s economy increase and also growth opportunities for domestic businesses.
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