Currently, countries intend to remove anti-pandemic measures and restart the economy. Vietnam also advocates to implement the “Dual-task”: continue to prevent and fight against pandemic, and to promote socio-economic development. With the economy with a high volume of openness leading the world, Vietnam will be affected by what happens in the global economy.
PREDICTING WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC RECOVERY SCENARIOS?
- Based on what is going on, the recovery process is unlikely to take the “V” shape, which is skyrocketing after the recession because this crisis is the most serious since the Great Depression of 1929 – 1932.
- It is impossible to exclude the possibility that a pandemic will re-emerge and a new financial and monetary crisis will explode, the world economy will fall into an “L” state, which means a sharp decline that may be in spending so long.
- Thus, when the pandemic ends globally – what no one is sure when, the world economy can only recover in the shape of the “U”, which means slowly go up.
AFFECT INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS
- “Globalization” will not disappear because it reflects the objective needs of development, but will witness adjustments. In the “post-COVID-19 in Vietnam latest news” era, the movement of goods, services, capital flows, information, transportation, tourism, labor, etc. will gradually recover but with a fairly slow pace due to all countries have prioritized cleaning up, stimulating domestic demand but not yet able to expand outside.
- The production and supply chains will be significantly adjusted in the direction of “diversification”; Emerging is the trend of many industrialized countries withdrawing production facilities from the “worldwide factory” of China to return home or move to other regions, especially in East – South Asia and India.
TRENDS IN CHANGING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC MODELS
- In addition to the model of sustainable development with economic growth associated with hunger eradication, poverty reduction and environmental protection. After the pandemic, this model will be maintained with the addition of measures to ensure human health and safety in the direction of “distance”.
- In the structure of production, the digital economy is and will continue to rise; Special attention will be given to industries related to the protection of human health.
- In the immediate future, people will prioritize the purchase of essential goods, which will cause the total demand to decline, making it difficult for economic recovery. Increasing re-poverty and extreme poverty; the rich-poor gap between different strata and nations; The demand for jobs is even more intense under the impact of the digital transformation.
COVID-19 CHANGED POLITICAL-INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
- After the devastating outbreak of COVID-19 followed the economic crisis, it will challenge China as the world’s second-largest economy. Accordingly, some political structures – international security will change; Affecting strategies such as “a belt, a road”, “Free and open Indian Ocean – Pacific” …
- The US is planning to establish a Prosperous Economic Network with the “QUAD” group dialogue, including the US, Australia, Japan, and India, and invite three other countries: Korea, New Zealand, and Vietnam joins together to restructure global supply chains.
OPPORTUNITIES AND POLICY TRENDS OF VIETNAM
- Thanks to successful anti-pandemic, our country has many advantages in economic recovery.
- The Government is developing and preparing through medium and long-term socio-economic development plans: 5 years (2021 – 2025), 10 years (2021 – 2030) with a vision of 25 years (until 2045) in the “new normal state”.
- The Government will pay more attention to all areas of human health protection such as biotechnology, epidemiology, germs/bacteriology, preventive medicine, research, production, and stockpiling of vaccines. As well as pharmaceuticals, medical instruments, … necessary.
- The trend of avoiding the development and construction of megacities with many millions of inhabitants, large-scale industrial zones and too high density, but should be focused on the principle of “spacing out” for dual purposes: to protect living environment and disease prevention.
- Focusing on the domestic market, developing auxiliary industries, diversifying, multi-lateralizing the market, and international supply chains …
- Catching the trend of relocating production facilities and supply chains to Southeast Asia, of which Vietnam is considered one of the priority destinations.
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