A year 2025 is about to pass, besides positive indicators, there are still potential challenges and risks. The following brief newsletter of VIVA hopes to provide you with useful information to proactively adapt – overcome challenges – seize opportunities, and always maintain the spirit of entrepreneurship*:
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT
- The risk of global trade instability and protectionism, especially the surprises from President Trump, could cause increased uncertainty and the full-blown impact of new tariffs.
- Risks associated with high levels of public debt in some countries and financial market instability have tightened global financial conditions.
- The US dollar continues to weaken, increasing the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates, reducing the dollar’s traditional safe haven, putting pressure on gold prices but possibly creating room for financial asset prices to maintain their upward momentum in the medium to long term.
- U.S. economic growth is between 1% and 2.5%, slowed by a weak job market, low incomes, and declining public spending.
- China’s economic growth is between 4.5% and 4.8%, facing deflation, tariffs and weakening real estate.
- Eurozone economic growth of 0.7%-1.2% is low due to the impact of tariffs and political instability
- Southeast Asia is forecast to grow by 4.5%.
PREDICTIONS AND NOTES ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY – 2026
On November 13, 2025, the National Assembly will finalize the GDP growth rate in 2026, striving to achieve GDP of over 10%, per capita income of 5,400-5,500 USD.
In order to achieve the target of 2-digit growth from 2026 and 20 consecutive years ahead, the government is likely to implement the following activities and policies:
- Fiscal policy on public investment, tax tools: There will certainly be an increase in public investment, but is there a possibility of reducing taxes to nurture businesses and stimulate consumer demand?
- Monetary policy ? The possibility of credit growth in the context of the need to control exchange rates and inflation?
- Changing the economic model, including focusing on the fields of science, technology, and digital transformation, especially with the private economy as the main driver?
- Increase labor productivity to compensate for labor supply after passing the peak – Vietnam’s labor force cannot increase by 2% per year, but will enter the aging labor period.
- Take advantage of opportunities in international integration. Developing domestic supply chains – Taking advantage of a market of 100 million people.
- Solutions to stimulate growth with monetary policy will put certain pressure on the exchange rate – interest rate.
- New tax regulations may put short-term pressure on business households – having a certain impact on the distribution chain.
- Tax authorities change their mindset – methods and tools will help expand tax collectors – receivables… This is said to be a sustainable source of additional revenue to the state budget.
VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN 2025 – WHAT REMAINS
The growth target of 10% and double digits in the next 20 years is very respectable, but it is necessary to look back at the upcoming year 2025:
- Businesses and state administrative agencies are adapting to the two-level government, a series of new regulations will take effect from 2025.
- The completion of institutions will still not keep up with development requirements.
- – Small businesses closed en masse.
- Nearly 200,000 enterprises withdrew from the market.
- Credit and capital flows have not been concentrated or absorbed into production and business, where value and productivity are created.
- Public investment is still slow to be disbursed.
- Administrative procedures are still eroding the strength of people and businesses.
- Severe natural disasters and floods
- There are still 1.6 million young people aged 15-24 who have not been trained and do not go to school or work.
- The economy has the fastest and largest openness in the world, but Vietnamese enterprises are falling into a corner of the low value-added part, outsourcing is the main one.
The macroeconomic situation and government moves will have a direct and indirect impact on each business. Entrepreneurs and businesses are invited to continue to follow VIVA Business Consulting’s updates to have useful information to help determine the time – Location – Harmony for business decisions.
Not only relying on the professional capacity and resources accumulated continuously from 2026, VIVA Business Consulting also accompanies Standard Chartered Vietnam, a British multinational bank that has been present in Vietnam since 1904 to implement many programs towards the SME community in Vietnam.
Please contact VIVA to get strong perspectives and solutions on administrative procedures in business and business finance operations and tools to help optimize financial costs and income, and strengthen global trade capacity.
VIVA BUSINESS CONSULTING
* Entrepreneurial spirit: It is continuous innovation to adapt, continuous improvement to improve, and non-stop according to the Kaizen philosophy.
